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Post by pigaro on Jul 11, 2015 23:59:49 GMT -5
A quick note: the spreadsheet recommended BUY for wool at 42, but the price today was actually 77. If you have wool, sell today since the price is likely to be slightly higher than tomorrow. The spreadsheet showed a yellow warning for wool today, indicating that there was a possibility that wool could be high instead of low. Today that possibility was realized.
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Post by pigaro on Jul 12, 2015 0:08:25 GMT -5
Other upcoming caution days (where the price could be the opposite from what the spreadsheet indicates, all days are UTC) are:
7/21/15 Wheat is a sell at 65; could be low instead of high
7/24/15 Wool is a buy at 42 (sound familiar?); could be high instead
7/30/15 Lumber is a sell at 165; could be low instead of high
8/5/15 Wood is a buy at 35; could be high instead of low
8/15/15 Wood is a buy at 35; could be high instead of low
8/15/15 Wool is a buy at 42; could be high instead
8/23/15 Wheat is a sell at 65; could be low instead of high
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Post by pigaro on Jul 24, 2015 0:16:35 GMT -5
Just like the last time, the price of wool was high today instead of low (as predicted by the spreadsheet). Sell if you have it. You can buy in three days. I would guess that it is very likely that this pattern will repeat the next time as well (8/15/15).
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crspe
New Member
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Post by crspe on Jul 24, 2015 18:41:04 GMT -5
If you collect together 20 consecutive days of wool prices then I can check if there really is a systematic error that has crept in over the past years and adjust if needed.
Wool especially was hard to predict because it is the resource whose price moves the least from day to day and so was always the one that was least accurate.
happy to check the other prices too if you want, just need to actual prices to compare against.
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Post by pigaro on Jul 25, 2015 0:14:37 GMT -5
I don't think there is anything wrong with the wool price predictions. The spreadsheet highlighted both days as yellow, which I think means they could go the other direction (and they did). Today's prediction was spot on. My intent was to warn others that the wool prediction did indeed go the other way and that buying wool was not a good idea.
Another instance of wool being highlighted as yellow is coming up (8/15/15), with the same price predicted. My guess is that it will also go the other way, but the days after have a different pattern than the previous two occurrences so perhaps it won't.
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pbtown
Junior Member
Posts: 97 
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Post by pbtown on Jul 25, 2015 10:33:43 GMT -5
Thank you, Pigaro, for the warning. I started putting the prices in my daily forecasts for the buy/sell items so people would check in case it was one of those upside down days.
Crspe, thank you again, for the predictions!
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Post by pigaro on Aug 2, 2015 3:07:43 GMT -5
I have made some personal modifications to the formatting of the Trade Nations Market Futures spreadsheet originally posted by crspe. I also added a row for each commodity to calculate the sell price (0.85*buy price). The resulting spreadsheets are attached to this message, one in Microsoft Excel format and the other for Apple Numbers (for iOS). The start dates for these spreadsheets has been set to 7/1/15. I made the modifications using LibreOffice and saved the file in Excel (.xls) format. For some reason, the file increased significantly in size, but I was able to open it using Microsoft Excel 2008 (for the Mac, the latest version I own). The calculations appear to have been preserved, but I had to fix the conditional formatting. To set a different start date in the Excel spreadsheet, change the value of cell P8. Note that Apple Numbers for iOS does not support conditional formatting (at least as far as I can tell), so the color coding for the buy (green), sell (red), and price warnings (yellow) will not show up in the Numbers version. Also, Numbers appears to use a different date coding than Excel, so I fixed the date information. When I open the spreadsheet in Numbers I get a message that "Some changes were made to your spreadsheet", apparently associated with fonts. This does not seem to be significant and I just open the spreadsheet. Do not attempt to change the start date in the Numbers spreadsheet, as it will give incorrect results. Numbers does not support all the formulas from the Excel version and replaced the unsupported formulas with the values of the cell. Therefore you will need to set the start date in Excel version and re-import to Numbers. Microsoft Excel version Trade Nations Market Overview.xls (926 KB) Apple Numbers version Trade Nations Market Overview-numbers.zip (431.85 KB) |
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pbtown
Junior Member
Posts: 97
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Post by pbtown on Aug 2, 2015 10:19:49 GMT -5
Thank you so much, Pigaro! I just opened it in numbers and it is so much easier to read than before. It is great!
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Post by pigaro on Aug 3, 2015 1:32:02 GMT -5
You're welcome pbtown, I am glad you find it useful. Thanks also to crspe for posting the original spreadsheet these were based on.
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Post by pigaro on Aug 4, 2015 0:31:12 GMT -5
There was a problem with the Numbers spreadsheet (above) and it was not giving the correct data. I re-imported the Excel spreadsheet and formatted it to make it more readable. Unfortunately the new spreadsheet was just a little too big to attach to the message so I had to compress it using zip. I have deleted the incorrect Numbers spreadsheet from the post above and replaced it with the zip compressed new version.
If you have downloaded the previous Numbers version, delete it and download the new version.
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Post by pigaro on Aug 4, 2015 0:34:33 GMT -5
Warning on the price of Wood for 8/5/15 (UTC): the spreadsheet recommends buying at 35, but the price could be high instead of low.
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Post by pigaro on Aug 22, 2015 0:45:31 GMT -5
Warning on the price of wheat for 8/23/15 (UTC). The spreadsheet is predicting sell at 77, but the price could actually be low making a good day to buy.
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Post by pigaro on Nov 2, 2015 1:18:49 GMT -5
Price spreadsheet with start date set to 10/1/15. Trade Nations Market Overview 20151001.xls (927.5 KB) The Excel version has been checked with Excel 2008 and opens correctly. This version includes the formatting for buy (green fill) and sell (red fill), and also yellow fill on the buy price for warning that the actual action may be the opposite (i.e., buy may actually be a sell) from the spreadsheet prediction. I also created an Apple Numbers (for iOS) version with a start date of 10/1/15. Since Numbers for iOS does not support conditional formatting, there is no fill for buy, sell, or warning. Also, the Numbers version is greater than the maximum upload size for the list, so I had to compress the file using Zip. You will need to download the Zip file and unzip to get the Numbers file that you can transfer to your iOS device. Trade Nations Market Overview 20151001.numbers.zip (970.73 KB) |
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pbtown
Junior Member
Posts: 97
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Post by pbtown on Nov 2, 2015 6:18:11 GMT -5
Thank you, Pigaro, for updating. I haven't been able to get the attachment to open, however.
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Post by pigaro on Nov 3, 2015 1:14:21 GMT -5
If you have problems with the Numbers (for iOS) file, send me a personal message with your email address and I will send you an unzipped copy. It is about 1.6 MB in size.
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