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Post by pigaro on Feb 17, 2015 0:48:18 GMT -5
The Trade Nations Market Future site (http://trade-nations.illogicz.nl/market-predictions.php) has gotten out of sync with the actual prices. It is kind of ironic to read how the prices are generally within 1 point 99% of the time. I tried emailing illogcz, but got no response. Does anyone know of a site that is still in sync?
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Post by MinPhoenix on Feb 17, 2015 1:15:21 GMT -5
Hi Pigaro. It's no longer in sync. But thanks to crspe, he has a market prediction spreadsheet. I can post it here tomorrow. 1:15 AM here. (Yawn!). Or if pbtown sees this before morning, she has a copy too.
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crspe
New Member
Posts: 11 
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Post by crspe on Feb 17, 2015 5:41:13 GMT -5
And here it is ... The buy price predictions are shown for each of the resources starting on line 37, and the buy/sell recommendation on the following line. Predictions that are at risk of being wrong are highlighted in yellow. And if you want to see predictions for different days, change the number in cell P8 Have fun, and msg me if it goes out of sync again, but it should be right for the rest of the year. PS, nice to see you all again |
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Post by MinPhoenix on Feb 17, 2015 9:53:51 GMT -5
Crspe!!  |
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Post by frogmommy on Feb 17, 2015 14:39:45 GMT -5
Hiya Crspe - you'll be touched to know that my iPad still wants to call you Crispy. Nice to see you.
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Post by pigaro on Feb 18, 2015 0:11:44 GMT -5
Crspe - thanks, this is amazing. I am curious how you figured this out, and what happened that causes it to go out of sync?
The spreadsheet has the buy prices, but I do not see the sell prices. When I unhide portions of the spreadsheet, I can see sell prices, but they are lower than they should be. Is that why they were hidden?
Thanks again, it is nice to have predictions I can count on and not have to guess on when to buy and sell.
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pbtown
Junior Member
Posts: 97 
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Post by pbtown on Feb 18, 2015 9:02:01 GMT -5
Here is the quick version.
Market for Thursday, February 19, until r17
Wood - hold
Wheat - hold
Rock - hold
Wool - hold
Lumber - hold
Cloth - hold
Stone - sell
Market for Friday, February 20, until r17
Wood - hold
Wheat - hold
Rock - hold
Wool - sell
Lumber - hold
Cloth - buy
Stone - buy
Market for Saturday, February 21, juntil r17
Wood - hold
Wheat - hold
Rock - hold
Wool - hold
Lumber - hold
Cloth - sell
Stone - sell
Market for Sunday, February 22, until r17
Wood - hold
Wheat - hold
Rock - buy
Wool - hold
Lumber - hold
Cloth - buy
Stone - hold
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pbtown
Junior Member
Posts: 97
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Post by pbtown on Feb 18, 2015 9:11:40 GMT -5
Sorry. I forgot today is still Wednesday.
Market for Wednesday, February 18, until r17
Wood - hold
Wheat - hold
Rock - sell
Wool - hold
Lumber - buy
Cloth - sell
Stone- buy
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pbtown
Junior Member
Posts: 97
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Post by pbtown on Feb 18, 2015 11:44:06 GMT -5
Thank you, Crspe!
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Post by MinPhoenix on Feb 18, 2015 13:14:22 GMT -5
Thank you Tricia for posting them here too!!
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crspe
New Member
Posts: 11
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Post by crspe on Feb 18, 2015 16:52:25 GMT -5
Crspe - thanks, this is amazing. I am curious how you figured this out, and what happened that causes it to go out of sync? The spreadsheet has the buy prices, but I do not see the sell prices. When I unhide portions of the spreadsheet, I can see sell prices, but they are lower than they should be. Is that why they were hidden? Thanks again, it is nice to have predictions I can count on and not have to guess on when to buy and sell. Hi pigaro, it was actually first figured out by illogicz and a whole group of people way back even before I started playing TN. From pretty early on, people noticed that the prices were not random (e.g. the buy price of wood is NEVER below 34 and NEVER above 65) and so started plotting the prices. Once that happened, it was clear that wood especially seemed to follow quite a regular pattern - it mostly went up for 4 days, then dropped down before going up again (see graph below). From there it was continuous refinement before illogicz worked out the whole scheme. As for why it goes out of sync, there are some parameters that do not get added in very often (e.g. you can see in column M the parameters that only get used every 512 days (thats once every 1.5 years!!), and either there are parameters that should be added in even less often or else we have picked the wrong start date for the calculations. Either way, instead of trying to work out the correct start date or the longer parameters, its easier to just correct the offset to bring the numbers back into sync once every 1.5 years or so.  As for the sell prices - they are ALWAYS 15% less than the buy price, so I dont bother listing them. the "sell" prices listed in the hidden rows are used to work out when you should buy or sell each resource. So that I wasnt buying & selling resources for only a very few gold profit, I adjusted the spreadsheet to only show buy/sell instructions if you make at least 10 profit for each sold unit. This can be adjusted in cell C7. if you set cell C7 to "0" then the listed sell prices will be correct, but you will be clicking on buy/sell about 33% more often for almost no extra profit. |
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Post by pigaro on Feb 19, 2015 1:30:37 GMT -5
crspe - thanks for the explanation, especially about the sell prices and the profit. I had thought there was a specific algorithm (although I guess pattern matching is an algorithm) that was used to calculate the prices.
I tried importing the spreadsheet into Numbers on my iPad for when I am traveling. The calculations seem to work, to a point, but the formatting is different. I had to change the formulas to get the dates to appear. The price data was copied, but I am not sure all the formulas were imported, since when I tried changing cell P8 only the dates and number below changed but the prices and actions did not. I think only the data values for Column P were imported, but the formulas for the remaining columns was copied (deleting column P results in all the values to the right changing).
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crspe
New Member
Posts: 11
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Post by crspe on Feb 19, 2015 2:06:22 GMT -5
Working out the parameters which define the prices (which are all found in range C26:O32) was a long process of continuous improvements. We had over 3 years of price data to compare against and went through a whole series of different methods to optimize the parameters to best match the data.
Am not surprised that Numbers on the ipad struggles with doing any recalculation - the key formula which calculates the price ={MOD(SUMPRODUCT(TRANSPOSE($C27:$M27),AG$12:AG$22)-$N27,($O27-$N27))+$N27} is probably too complicated for the ipad app. Still, as long as you dont change any inputs, the predictions as listed should all be correct.
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Post by lulu on Feb 19, 2015 3:37:16 GMT -5
Maybe try converting it to a google doc for travel? Ive had some good success wth some pretty complex spreadsheets on there...and they are much easier to share!
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Post by pigaro on Feb 20, 2015 1:02:03 GMT -5
I did not really need to import the spreadsheet into numbers (I could have just printed the essential part as a PDF), but since I have Numbers (came free with the iPad) I thought I would try using it. I was pleasantly surprised that it works as well as it does.
As to converting it to Google docs, I am trying to live as "Google-free" a life as I can. I think they lost a word from their purported motto.
Anyway, thanks for posting the spreadsheet. It is truly amazing how much effort was put into that and I am humbled to be able to take advantage of that tremendous work.
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